Reserve Bank of India Bullish on Corporate Profits

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Nov. 17 – The professional forecasters’ survey of the Reserve Bank of India is positive about the corporate sector’s profitability in the current financial year.

In the bank’s latest survey, the profit growth of the corporate sector for 2009-10 has been set higher at 10 percent from 7.5 percent from a previous survey. The survey marginally lowered the corporate sector profit growth for 2010-11 to 14.5 percent from 15 per cent in the last survey.

The survey has also notched down the real GDP growth by 50 basis points to 6 percent. India’s central bank, the RBI,  projected a GDP growth of six percent in 2009-10 with an upside bias by assuming a modest decline in agricultural production and a faster recovery in industrial production.

The upward revision comes on the back of a firm recovery in industrial output. According to the latest Indian Central Statistical Organization, industrial production, comprised of major sectors like manufacturing, electricity generation and mining, grew 9.1 per cent in September higher than the 6.03 percent growth recorded in the same month last year.

The forecasters’ median estimates for the Wholesale Price Index have projected inflation in the third and fourth quarters of the current financial year to be revised upwards to 4 and 6.8 percent respectively. The majority of the forecasters feel that inflation will be in the 6 to 6.9 percent range in 2009-10 and 5 to 5.9 percent in 2010-11, and this factor still remains a concern of note as India grows out of the economic downturn.