First Advance Estimates of India’s GDP (2021-22) Suggest 9.2% Growth

Posted by Written by Naina Bhardwaj Reading Time: 3 minutes

We list the first advance estimates of India’s GDP for FY 2021-22, as provided by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation recently released a press note for the first advance estimates of India’s GDP (National Income) for the Financial Year (FY) 2021-22.

The press note shows data for National Income at both constant (2011-12) and current prices, along with the corresponding estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

What are first advance estimates?

The first advance estimates of GDP are based on limited data and compiled using the Benchmark-Indicator method. In this method, the estimates available for the previous financial year are extrapolated using relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. This exercise of releasing first advance estimates was first introduced in 2016-17 with the aim of providing essential inputs to the Union Budget making process.

The second advance estimates of National Income for the FY 2021-22 and quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2021 (Q3 2021-22) will be released on February 28, 2022.

What are the first advance estimates for India’s national income in FY 2021-22?

Real GDP: According to the data, the growth in GDP at constant prices (2011-12), also known as real GDP, during FY 2021-22 is estimated at 9.2 percent as compared to the contraction of 7.3 percent in FY 2020-21. In terms of value, real GDP for the year 2021-22 is estimated at INR 147.54 trillion (US$1.98 trillion) as against as against the provisional GDP estimate of INR 135.13 trillion (US$1.81 trillion) for FY 2020-21. Real gross value added (GVA) at basic prices is estimated at INR 135.22 trillion (US$1.82 trillion) in 2021-22 as against INR 124.53 trillion (US$1.67 trillion) in FY 2020-21, showing a growth of 8.6 percent.

Nominal GDP: The growth in GDP at current prices, also known as nominal GDP, during FY 2021-22 is estimated at 17.6 percent. For FY 2021-22, the nominal GDP is estimated at INR 232.15 trillion (US$3.12 trillion) as against the provisional estimate of GDP for the year 2020-21 of INR 197.46 trillion (US$2.65 trillion). Nominal GVA at basic prices is estimated at INR 210.37 trillion (US$2.83 trillion) in 2021-22 as against INR 179.15 trillion (US$2.41 trillion) in 2020-21, registering a growth of 17.4 percent.

What are the sectoral growth estimates for FY 2021-22?

The first advance estimates of GVA at basic prices by economic activity show a positive growth across sectors, with mining and quarrying, manufacturing, construction, and hospitality industries projected to register the fastest growth.

Other sectors, too, are estimated to register positive growth, a departure from the pandemic-induced contraction in the previous year. Enabling government policies are expected to catapult these sectors towards an upward growth trajectory. 

These estimates have been compiled using indicators like:

  • Index of Industrial Production (IIP) of first seven months of FY 2021-22
  • Financial performance of listed companies in the private corporate sector available up to quarter ending September, 2021
  • First advance estimates of crop production
  • Accounts of Central and State Governments
  • Bank deposits and credits
  • Net ton kilometers and passenger kilometers for railways
  • Passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation
  • Cargo handled at major sea ports
  • Data for sale of commercial vehicles, etc., available for first eight months of FY 2021-22

First Advance Estimates of GVA (at Basic Prices) by Economic Activity (INR Billion)

Industry

FY 2019-20

FY 2020-21

FY 2021-22 (PE) (1st AE)

Percentage change over previous year (%)

2020-21

2021-22

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

19685.71

20400.79

21194.49

3.6

3.9  

Mining & Quarrying

3221.16

2946.44

3368.59

-8.5

14.3

Manufacturing

22694.24

21070.68

23702.88

-7.2

12.5

Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services

 

3005.32

3062.54

 

3322.35

1.9

8.5

Construction

10,35,534

9463.96

10474.48

-8.6

10.7

Trade, Hotels, Transport, Communication & Services related to Broadcasting

26997.97

22083.88

24703.20

-18.2

 

11.9

 

Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services

29165.09

28728.15

29881.31

-1.5

4.0

Public Administration, Defense & Other Services*

17589.87

16777.86

18577.31

-4.6

 

10.7

GVA at basic prices

132714.71

124534.30

135224.61

-6.2

8.6

 

Percentage Change in Main Indicators of Economic Activity (%)

Indicators

FY 2020-21

FY 2021-22

Production of Rice

2.9

1.3

Production of Coal

-2.6

11.6

Production of Crude Oil

-6.0

-2.7

Production of Cement

-19.5

28.3

Consumption of Steel

-14.2

16.0

Total Telephone Subscribers

-2.7

1.5

Sales of Commercial Vehicles

-56.0

64.7

Purchase of Private Vehicles

-24.6

-1.4

Cargo Handled at Major Sea Ports

-10.2

12.0

Cargo Handled at Airports

-33.7

45.6

Passengers Handled at Airports

-78.8

117.2

 

Railways

Net Ton Kilometers

-6.8

27.9

Passenger Kilometers

-90.5

382.8

Aggregate Bank Deposits

11.3

9.6

Aggregate Bank Credits

6.0

7.3

Revenue Expenditure less Interest Payment and Subsidies (Centre)

4.9

2.8

LIC Premium – Non-Linked

2.2

0.4

LIC Premium – Linked

30.9

168.3

Export of Goods and Services

-9.0

37.9

Import of Goods and Services

-26.5

60.0

Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) General Index

6.9

5.2

 

Index of Industrial Production (IIP)

Mining

-13.2

20.5

Manufacturing

-19.4

21.2

Electricity

-5.6

11.3

Metallic Minerals

-29.1

52.9

 

Wholesale Price Index (WPI)

Food Articles

4.6

1.4

Minerals

1.9

17.0

Manufactured Products

1.14

11.3

All Commodities

-0.2

12.2

Further Reading


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