India-US Trade Deal Cuts Tariffs, Lifts Export and Investment Outlook

The India-US trade deal lowers US tariffs on Indian goods from 50 percent to 18 percent, easing export pressure and improving investor sentiment across manufacturing, agriculture, and supply chains.

US tariffs on Indian exports cut

The India-US trade agreement announced on February 3, 2026, is being viewed as a reset in bilateral economic relations, easing tariff-related uncertainty and improving visibility for exporters, manufacturers, and global investors. However, details on the extent of the commitments from India are still awaited.

The deal, which reduces US tariffs on Indian goods from 50 percent to 18 percent, removes what businesses had described as a lingering “tariff overhang” and is expected to strengthen India’s trade competitiveness at a time of fragile global demand.

Business executives, economists, and market stakeholders say the move restores predictability for cross-border commerce and could unlock delayed investment decisions across manufacturing and supply-chain-linked sectors.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the agreement as a reaffirmation of robust bilateral ties, while US President Donald Trump highlighted commitments from India to increase purchases of American energy, technology, agricultural goods, and manufacturing inputs as part of broader efforts to address trade imbalances and strengthen economic integration.

India export outlook

At the center of the India-US trade agreement is a notable rollback of 2025 US tariffs on Indian exports, a step that analysts say will directly support margin stability for exporters while improving planning certainty for multinational firms operating production bases in India.

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Tariff clarity plays a critical role in capital allocation, cross-border lending activity, and corporate expansion strategies. According to trade experts, banks and financial institutions are likely to benefit from higher trade volumes and renewed credit demand as companies restart deferred projects and scale export-oriented operations.

India’s Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal described the trade deal as a catalyst for “unprecedented opportunities” for farmers, medium-small and micro enterprises (MSMEs), entrepreneurs, and skilled workers, positioning India to export competitive products globally while attracting technology transfers that could turbo-charge domestic manufacturing and innovation.

Tariff rollback eases pressure on trade and supply chains

According to Goyal’s remarks reported by PTI and other major media outlets, the agreement is expected to:

• Expand market access for Indian agricultural products and processed goods.
• Strengthen the Make in India and Design in India initiatives by expanding global footprints.
• Facilitate technology collaboration with US partners in key sectors.
• Create jobs and scale exports in manufacturing, services, and technology segments.

Strategic implications extend beyond trade

Beyond commercial flows, the agreement also carries geopolitical significance. Latest reports note that India has agreed to curb Russian oil purchases as part of the broader negotiations, potentially signaling a gradual shift toward deeper economic alignment with the US.

Previously, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on January 27, 2026, said that India had made “a lot of progress” in talks, though he added that some elements, including energy imports and agricultural market access, remain under discussion.

Details on the exact scale of India’s reduced Russian oil imports and any corresponding increase in US agricultural exports are still awaited, but analysts see the agreement as strengthening India’s strategic positioning within global supply chains.

Potential upside for GDP growth, markets, and manufacturing

From a macroeconomic perspective, the tariff reduction is expected to support India’s GDP growth trajectory while providing a tailwind to equity markets, particularly export-facing and manufacturing-linked stocks.

Market watchers point to possible spillover benefits across electronics, industrial goods, and downstream services, especially as firms reassess sourcing strategies amid ongoing geopolitical fragmentation.

For lenders, improved trade conditions could translate into healthier corporate balance sheets, stronger demand for working capital, and increased appetite for long-term project financing, particularly in sectors aligned with India’s production-linked incentive (PLI) programs and infrastructure expansion drive.

Awaiting details

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Though detailed lists of tariff schedules and market access commitments are still being clarified by the central government authorities, exporters, including rice, marine products, textiles, and engineering goods firms, have welcomed the relief from punitive tariff regimes and anticipate renewed demand from the US market.

Analysts see the US pact complementing India’s wider trade strategy, which also includes diversification through FTAs with other partners – most recently, New Zealand and the EU. India has also signed an economic partnership agreement with Oman to grant zero-duty access on most goods, boosting exports across engineering, leather, textiles, and pharmaceuticals.

Progress after uneven negotiations

India was among the first countries to open trade discussions with the Trump administration, but negotiations progressed unevenly through 2025 amid speculation over whether a deal would materialize.

With tariff issues now largely addressed, businesses on both sides are optimistic that the agreement will open stalled supply contracts and accelerate new investment commitments, especially in manufacturing, electronics, and industrial supply chains.

What this means for global companies operating in India

For multinational firms with India-based manufacturing or sourcing operations, the deal delivers three immediate advantages:

1. Reduced tariff risk, improving margin visibility on US-bound exports
2. Greater policy certainty, supporting medium-term capacity and location planning
3. Improved investor sentiment, which could lower financing costs and speed up project approvals

India-US trade deal: Sectoral impacts and industry views

Agriculture

While the official deal’s specifics on agricultural tariff liberalization are still emerging, US agricultural officials have highlighted the potential for increased American farm exports to India, which Washington believes will narrow the US agricultural trade deficit and inject fresh demand into rural markets.

Domestic industry bodies in India have also noted potential new openings for products like rice and marine exports, with exporters welcoming tariff relief as a competitive advantage.

Manufacturing and MSMEs

Export-oriented industries such as engineering, electronics, textiles, and leather goods are expected to benefit from reduced tariff pressure, enabling Indian producers to better compete with regional rivals like Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Malaysia.

Trade associations such as EEPC India have already hailed the deal as a boost to engineering exports, while MSME groups anticipate stronger integration into cross-border supply chains.

Financial markets and investment sentiment

Financial markets reacted positively to the announcement, with benchmark indices rising and risk sentiment improving as trade uncertainty eased. Macroeconomic analysts see the agreement as potentially supporting GDP growth by lifting export momentum and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) into manufacturing and technology sectors.

What’s next and implementation challenges

While the tariff truce is being celebrated, parties on both sides acknowledge that the full implementation schedule, product lists, and timelines remain to be formalized through executive orders, cabinet approvals, and regulatory mechanisms.

Industry experts note the necessity for clarity on tariff phase-downs, rules of origin, and non-tariff measures to fully unlock the deal’s potential. Continued consultations between Indian trade negotiators and US counterparts are expected in the coming months to firm up operational details.

Key questions and business implications of the India-US tariff reset

1. Does the 18 percent tariff reduction address India’s regional competitiveness gap?

The introduction of an 18 percent reciprocal tariff provides partial relief, particularly for sectors such as apparel and gems and jewelry, which were among the most affected by higher US duty rates. However, the benefit is relatively limited when viewed in a regional context. Several of India’s neighboring countries and key Asian competitors continue to enjoy preferential market access under the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), typically amounting to duty concessions of around 5 percent. The US withdrew India’s GSP status in 2019 during President Trump’s first term, and Indian exporters had therefore anticipated a lower reciprocal tariff closer to 15 percent to restore competitive parity.

2. What investment commitments has India reportedly made to the US?

In a social media statement, Trump indicated that Modi had committed to significantly expanding purchases of US-origin goods, including energy, technology, agriculture, coal and other products, with the total value exceeding US$500 billion. India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has not confirmed whether such a commitment has been formally made. Given the magnitude of the figure, any such procurement would likely be phased over several years rather than executed as a near-term obligation.

3. Is India yielding to US sanctions pressure?

Recent developments around Iran-related sanctions reflect regulatory tightening rather than a policy reversal by New Delhi. On February 4, 2025, the US administration issued National Security Presidential Memorandum-2 (NSPM-2), directing the US Secretary of State to modify or rescind sanctions waivers that could provide Iran with economic or financial relief, including those linked to the Chabahar port project. Subsequently, on September 16, 2025, the US State Department revoked the 2018 waiver, effective September 29, 2025.

India has invested nearly US$120 million in equipment for Chabahar, a project that has played a critical role in enabling humanitarian and emergency assistance to Afghanistan. Following representations by New Delhi, the US Department of the Treasury issued a letter on October 28, 2025, confirming that Chabahar-related activities will not be subject to US sanctions until April 26, 2026.

The Government of India remains actively engaged with the US State Department and Treasury to operationalize this arrangement. Taken together, these developments point to a more constrained and negotiated operating environment for India’s regional connectivity strategy, rather than any capitulation to US sanctions pressure.

4. Which sectors in India are expected to benefit the most from the US tariff rollback?

Export-oriented sectors such as engineering goods, electronics, textiles, leather, agriculture, and marine products are likely to see the most immediate gains. Reduced tariffs improve price competitiveness in the US market, particularly against Asian peers like Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Malaysia.

5. How does the India-US trade deal impact multinational companies with manufacturing bases in India?

For global firms sourcing or manufacturing in India, the agreement reduces tariff risk on US-bound exports, improves margin visibility, and strengthens the case for expanding India-based production and supply chains.

6. Does the deal provide clarity on long-term trade policy certainty?

While the tariff reduction restores near-term predictability, detailed tariff schedules, product coverage, and timelines are still awaited. Full policy certainty will depend on the finalization of operational and regulatory details.

7. How could the agreement affect India’s GDP growth and employment?

By supporting exports, manufacturing output, and investment sentiment, the deal is expected to provide a positive impulse to GDP growth and job creation, particularly in manufacturing, logistics, and export-linked services.

8. How does this pact fit into India’s broader trade strategy?

The US deal complements India’s wider diversification strategy, which includes recent trade agreements with New Zealand, the EU, and Oman, aimed at expanding export markets and reducing dependence on any single geography.

9. What implementation risks should businesses watch for?

Key risks include delays in formal notifications, ambiguity around rules of origin, non-tariff barriers, and phased tariff reductions. Businesses will need close monitoring of executive orders and regulatory guidance to fully benefit from the agreement.

10. What is the near-term outlook for exporters following the announcement?

Exporters expect renewed demand from the US, reopening of stalled contracts, and improved buyer confidence. However, momentum will depend on how quickly tariff schedules and compliance requirements are clarified.

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